Wouldn’t you like to know the future of all things cyber? Of all the ways humanity has found of predicting the future, only one really works. Closely track what those that are building the future are doing. It is by no means perfect, but it will give you insights that are relevant and actionable.
For example, by following what the thought leaders and investors at the VC firm a16z are doing you can see what they are investing in and what companies they are putting their support behind. You can also see what context they focus on and what they are telling peers and their investors. The result: by tracking thought leaders at a16z you get much better, more relevant insights into the future they are building.
The video below is one that does just that. Andreessen Horowitz’ Benedict Evans provides fantastic insights into how a16z is looking at the past, present and future of all things cyber.
Evans starts with introductory context on the s-curve so frequently seen in technology adoption. The S-curve of personal computers is a perfect example, where growth started slow, then accelerated to 1.5 billion PCs and 3 billion users, then flattened out. Then Evans mentions the smartphone s-curve that is giving a computer to everyone on earth. These and other curves all seem to start slow, then explode in growth, then taper off again and get boring! At these stable and mature parts of the curve more applications and solutions are developed. When you get to this phase it starts to feel boring, aways. But this is not quite right, there is always something else coming.
So, two big questions to ask yourself, what can be built on the platforms today, and what are the next S-Curves.
We love the fast pace of this video. All along Evans provides insights and thought provoking context, for example, clear observations on how powerful tech giants rise and fall. Tech giants always fall, eventually. And it is surprising to learn that many of these giants, for example, the dominate GAFA (Google Apple Facebook Amazon), still have quite a bit of room to go before you can say they have really won!
Winners always look invulnerable until they don’t! And then something always comes along after that.
So what is coming next? There are plenty of indications. Key emerging S-Curves can be seen for Autonomy (robots!), Mixed Reality (AR/VR), Cryptocurrency, and of course Artificial Intelligence.